After the shock delivered to the country by the arrival of the IMF ten days ago, last week saw the reality of what this means as the government’s four-year plan for spending and cuts was published.
It’s clear that profound social, economic and political changes are under way in our country.
They are the consequences of choices either we have made, or which are now inevitable. But other huge choices remain for us, and how we make them will have far reaching effects on our country.
What’s clear so far?
Well, it’s pretty clear that the era of Fianna Fáil’s political dominance is over, almost certainly for ever.
The Greens’ moment in the sun is also over. Of more relevance to most people is that a period - lasting at least a few years - of falling living standards for nearly everyone at all levels of society is also inevitable.
But what remains to be decided?
There are three principal, important things: whether the budget will be passed, the nature of the agreement struck with the IMF and the EU on the bailout loan and, finally, the type of politics that will replace the failed show-time grandstanding of the past ten years.
Decisions made
Fianna Fáil, as we have known it, is dying. Along with jobs, hopes and best-laid plans, its long-unchallengable status as the dominant political force in Ireland is over.
Eighty years of running the state with only brief interludes of opposition; 80 years of power and patronage; of appointing judges and janitors the length and breadth of the country; of being the magnet for the money and attention that always flocks to power - all that is now, inevitably, coming to an end.
It is a moment of deep historical significance in our politics.
The most recent polls show the party has lost its traditional bedrock of support in the working-class, where it is now less popular, not just than Fine Gael and Labour, but also than Sinn Féin.
We may never see another Fianna Fáil taoiseach.
One Fianna Fáil backbencher, dragging his suitcase down Molesworth Street last Thursday as he headed for the early train at Heuston, paused for a few words on the party’s fate with The Sunday Business Post. ‘‘Well," he said, ‘‘it was Good while it lasted."
That TD, and many of his colleagues, believe that Brian Cowen will not lead them into the next election. Conversations with a series of informed sources last week confirmed that this is the understanding of most ministers, and they are quietly letting TDs know this. A sort of shadow leadership contest is already under way.
Mary Hanafin will be a candidate, as will Micheál Martin. Dermot Ahern may be. Brian Lenihan’s demeanor suggests he also will be, even if his medical condition suggests otherwise.
But while Fianna Fáil may be leaving office, the legacy of the past two governments’ disastrous economic policies will remain, in the shape of the four-year plan of austerity announced last Wednesday.
The announcement of the programme - before a gaggle of foreign and domestic media in Government Buildings, while protestors hooted and chanted outside - showed the extent of the tax hikes and spending cuts that will take place over the coming years.
The micro detail - working out exactly how much individuals will pay - will have to wait until the budget. But significant drops in income for people at all levels of society, from the well-off to the poor, are in store.
That much is in no doubt, and it will happen no matter who is in office.
The cacophony of voices which say that the individual measures of the plan are not necessary tend to be quieter in explaining where the money should otherwise come from - beyond infantile sloganeering.
The notion that most Irish people - who are, let us not forget, among the best-paid and most lightly-taxed in Europe - won’t have to pay anything if we can somehow get Dermot Desmond and Denis O’Brien to open their wallets is hardly worthy of serious debate.
There are many aspects of the plan which will make people queasy. People who are already struggling to make ends meet on social welfare will be forced to make do with less.
The protect on of existing public Servants by reducing the pay of new entrants by 10 per cent represents a hauling up of the ladders which is entirely consistent with the spirit of the Croke Park Agreement.
This agreement, of course, allowed for the government to review it in case the public finances deteriorated; with the IMF holed up in the Merrion Hotel, just how bad does it have to get?
Decisions to Come
More pressing entirely are two matters which will come to a head in the next ten days.
The first is the agreement with the EU and the IMF over the bailout loan, expected to amount to some €85 billion.
The terms of the agreement - and, crucially, the interest rate charged - will circumscribe much of the freedom of movement for future Irish governments.
A punitive interest rate - and there is a strong lobby in Europe to punish Ireland right now - would condemn Ireland to years of massive interest payments which would cripple any return to growth and prosperity. Ireland is not without cards to play in the negotiations, however.
The ECB and the EU are desperate to protect the euro, and to prevent the contagion from spreading to the other ‘peripheral’ countries.
That, rather than he happiness of the Irish, is their primary concern in this crisis. If you’re making a deal with someone who really wants a deal, that gives you bargaining power.
However, we would be wise not to overstate our negotiating strength, either.
The reason that the IMF, European Commission and the ECB are here is that the country is broke. If we run out of money to keep the lights on and the banks shut their doors, it would be no consolation that the rest of the eurozone is in crisis.
The second pressing matter happens on Tuesday week, when the budget is presented to the Dáil.
At present, it seems that the government is more likely than not to have the numbers, but in the febrile political atmosphere right now, that could change at a moment’s notice.
Fine Gael and Labour are still talking tough, but with international commentators and the European Commission warning of the dire consequences of failing to pass the budget, it seems inconceivable that they would bring down the government for the sake of a few weeks, when they know they would end up implementing 90 per cent of the package anyway.
Whatever happens with the budget and the IMF discussions, an election is not far away. It will result in a change of government, almost certainly to a Fine Gael-Labour administration. It is not yet clear which will be the bigger party, though Fine Gael retains a steady lead, according to recent Sunday Business Post/ Red C tracking polls.
That government will find its freedom to act on economic matters hugely restricted by the country’s circumstances and the loan conditions it has accepted. Labour clearly realises this, though it isn’t yet sure how it wants to manage it.
Culture shock
A more fundamental question is whether the enormous failure of our political system will lead to a change in our political culture.
For the decade before the crash - at least - politics in this country was reduced to a desperate scramble to give voters whatever they wanted. All parties tried to do it; Fianna Fáil just did it better than the others.
Bertie Ahern’s administrations reduced government to a mere adjunct of politics.
There was no such thing as good government; there was only good politics.
And good politics meant getting re-elected, whatever the cost. If that meant shoe-horning the economic cycle into the electoral cycle, so be it. If it meant inflating public spending to suicidal levels, so be it. If it meant letting the banks keep lending to sustain delusions of great wealth, carry on Seanie.
Voters were no passive bystanders in this. Voters were the ones who demanded it and when Fianna Fáil delivered, the voters rewarded them.
Will this culture change?
Only if there is a public demand for it. Last week, both main opposition parties rushed out to say how they would renegotiate the four-year plan, or omit certain cuts.
Politics as usual, not the politics of reality. If our mainstream political institutions and parties do not face up to the challenges of changing the political culture in a constructive way, other forces may take up the reins.
Some people are flirting with some pretty odd notions. Fintan O’Toole, one of the country’s leading commentators, called for an interim technical government, effectively a suspension of the Constitution. Do people really want to suspend the Constitution?
And would this come about by a referendum or by hundreds of thousands of people on the streets - literally a political revolution? If it is the latter, what would the consequences be for our country?
The disregard for our established politics is spreading. Last week, the TEEU trade union promised a campaign of civil disobedience against the four-year plan. One senior and experienced politician reflected privately that ‘‘there will be civil disorder’’.
There has been a huge inflation in the incendiary language that is being used of late. In the Dáil last Thursday, Sinn Féin’s Caoimhghín O’Caoláin - actually following a speech by Eamon Ryan asking for some civility and calmness in the debate - accused the Greens of ‘‘treason’’ and ‘‘betrayal’’, ‘‘criminality’’ and ‘‘treachery’’.
O’Caoláin’s party was part of an organisation which spent 30 years killing its fellow Irishmen, Though most people in the Dáil are too polite to mention it nowadays.
But Sinn Fe¤ in are far from the only people using this language. A few minutes earlier, Socialist Party MEP Joe Higgins launched a new United Left Alliance across the road in Buswells Hotel.
Higgins is a sincere and committed politician and, unlike most of his colleagues in the last Dáil, chose to accept only the average industrial wage, devoting the rest of his salary to political activities.
That does not make him right or wrong about anything. But it is the language used at last week’s launch that was notable.
He spoke of the government ‘‘draining the lifeblood of the poor’’; of the ‘‘vultures in the markets’’; he accused reporters present of accepting ‘‘the dictatorship of the markets’’.
This is the language, not just of right or wrong policy choices, but of good and evil. And if you believe your political opponent is not just wrong, but evil, that adds a whole different dimension to politics.
The movement of economic forces is having a profound social and political effect. It always does - economic forces are the tectonic plates of the political landscape. Political change is certainly on the way. Not all of it may be welcome.
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