Showing posts with label financial. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial. Show all posts

Friday, July 1, 2011

Payoff.com Transforms Personal Financial Management with First Ever Social Community for Your Finances

Posted on: Tuesday, 28 June 2011, 11:56 CDT

LOS ANGELES, June 28, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- With effects of the Great Recession lingering in a personal debt crisis, a home foreclosure crisis and widespread unemployment, today Payoff.com is launching a free social finance site offering consumers a fun and engaging way to pay off their debt, meet their savings goals and fulfill their financial dreams. With $3.5 million in capital investment led by FirstMark Capital, Payoff.com offers consumers a positive new alternative to view and interact with their finances.

(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20110628/LA27422LOGO)

"Debt steals dreams," said Scott Saunders, CEO and Founder of Payoff.com. "With trillions in consumer debt, a lot of dreams are being lost. Spreadsheets, pie charts and line-by-line budgets are great for financial analysts but suck for the average American. Payoff.com offers debt ridden consumers a way to get a better handle on the big picture and a clear path to pay off their debt, meet their savings goals and fulfill their financial dreams."

Today in America there is more than $14 trillion in consumer debt including mortgages. Nearly 25% of Americans have negative equity in their homes and more than 2 million people have negative equity greater than 50 percent or are at least $150,000 "upside down." More than half of Americans carry unpaid balances on their credit cards that average $16,000 and the average student loan debt for graduating seniors has risen to $24,000.

Payoff.com is "just what American consumers need today: a simple, practical and fun way to manage finances and actually achieve personal financial goals," said Phillip Riese, former President of American Express and a Payoff.com Advisor.

Payoff has built a unique Personal Financial Management and financial account aggregation utility that addresses the unmet needs of a wide cross-section of American consumers compared to competing personal finance websites. Unlike other sites, Payoff.com allows users to share dreams, goals and accomplishments with their friends and garner their support, earn badges and win prizes like a game, and view their historical spending categorized by major merchants like Safeway, Starbucks, Old Navy, Target, and Victoria's Secret. Payoff.com's Scientific Advisory Board, led by Dr. Galen Buckwalter, Founder and Chief Scientist of eHarmony, is helping translate the most cutting edge findings in neuroeconomics into Payoff's product and pioneering the first definitive approach to help people understand their unique financial personality.

"Payoff is leading a paradigm shift in making personal financial management more approachable to a wider array of people," said Bill Cvengros, Former CEO of PIMCO Advisors and a Payoff.com investor.

Payoff.com has secured funding from an all-star list of angel investors including Betsy Bernard, former President of AT&T, Kai Huang, Founder of Guitar Hero, Jim Nordstrom, former President of Nordstrom, David Solomon, Global Co-Head of Investment Banking at Goldman Sachs, and several other angel investors.

About Payoff

Help has arrived! Payoff.com has turned the drudgery of personal financial management into something simple, social and fun. Payoff helps individuals take control of their financial destinies as a means to achieve goals and fulfill dreams. Payoff's product allows its users to share dreams, set financial goals like paying off a credit card or saving to start a business, and track their financial picture without pie-charts, spreadsheets or data-entry. Payoff.com also offers practical tools to help its users quickly achieve goals and rewards progress with badges and cash prizes to motivate its users. Payoff was founded in 2009 in Los Angeles, California. For more information, visit www.payoff.com.

SOURCE Payoff.com

Source: PR Newswire

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Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Recent financial crisis rooted in politics of creditworthiness, new study contends

A common reading of the recent subprime mortgage crisis pins the blame on bankers and loan brokers who extended mortgages to those who could not afford them, thereby inflating a housing bubble that was destined to burst.

While technically correct, that reading ignores the "politics of creditworthiness" that undergirded the rise of subprime mortgages, as explained in a new article in the June issue of the American Sociological Review by Simone Polillo, an assistant professor of sociology in the University of Virginia's College of Arts & Sciences.

Defining creditworthiness criteria is an exercise of moral authority, Polillo argues, and political contesting of those criteria is a fundamental aspect of financial innovation. The innovation of subprime mortgages was made possible only after accepted "sound banking" criteria of creditworthiness had come to exclude a growing portion of Americans, Polillo writes in his article, "Money, Moral Authority, and the Politics of Creditworthiness."

After World War II, one typically qualified for a home loan with a substantial down payment and a record of employment and the prospect of future stable employment. By the late 1970s, it was clear that such criteria, in practice, often excluded or marginalized racial minorities, people from poor neighborhoods, individuals with poor credit histories and a growing portion of Americans affected by the breakdown of manufacturing and ever-withering employment benefits and stability.

"Wildcat" financial innovators stepped into this opening with new, looser credit criteria, based not on employment, but solely on the collateral value of the real estate to be purchased. "Wildcat" is Polillo's term for those who disobey "sound banking traditions" and thus create more inclusive, but more unstable credit systems.

Outflanked by these new offerings, more conservative local banks, to varying degrees, gradually followed the wildcats' lead, bolstered by claims from financial elites that the risks of such loans were parceled out by strategically bundling them into mortgage-backed securities.

As was learned in the financial crisis of 2007-08, the whole enterprise was founded on a flawed assumption, based on historical trends, that home prices would continue to rise steadily for the foreseeable future, Polillo said.

This was the latest example, among several in American history, of wildcat financial innovators spotting an underserved credit market, offering new financial products and creditworthiness standards to serve the underserved, and parlaying the innovations to financial elites and a wider market, he said.

A similar process played out when Michael Milken led the junk bond revolution of the 1980s. Junk bonds provided credit to companies that, Milken thought, had been systematically undervalued by rating agencies. Milken was particularly interested in bonds that, from a position of high credit rating, had fallen to "below investment grade," bonds he called "fallen angels."

"The fact that Milken became an emblem of reckless risk-taking and corruption," Polillo said, "should not distract us from the process that made his success possible: the recasting of previously excluded actors as worthy of credit (fallen angels) and the creation of new products to serve them."

Milken's case illustrates two pressures on prudent bankers who draw the line that establishes creditworthiness, Polillo said. First, those who are excluded may challenge how creditworthiness is defined and assessed. Second, new ideas may emerge within the banking system itself about how credit should be allocated.

Creditworthiness criteria are constantly being contested by bankers, financial innovators, the state and local communities, Polillo argues. Significant disagreement between those groups about the boundaries of creditworthiness can destabilize the financial system, as happened in Milken's junk bond revolution; in the subprime mortgage crisis; and in the post-Civil War clashes between "Greenbackers" and those who favored a gold standard.

In such clashes, both sides often lay claim to "laws" of the market, but the issue really boils down to ideas about how we decide where to draw boundaries between outsiders and insiders, Polillo said.

In the wake of such disruptions, the public grows skeptical of the competency of traditional monetary authorities like the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and Congress, and even banking elites, opening the door to debates on the proper role of the government and banks in the financial system, Polillo said.

Such concerns underlie our current debates on the national budget deficit, the debt ceiling and government bailouts, he said. As these debates play out observers should be mindful of how the politics of creditworthiness are being contested once again.

Provided by American Sociological Association (news : web)


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Sunday, April 17, 2011

In Financial Crisis, No Prosecutions of Top Figures

GRETCHEN MORGENSON and LOUISE STORY, On Thursday April 14, 2011, 7:33 am EDT

It is a question asked repeatedly across America: why, in the aftermath of a financial mess that generated hundreds of billions in losses, have no high-profile participants in the disaster been prosecuted?

Answering such a question — the equivalent of determining why a dog did not bark — is anything but simple. But a private meeting in mid-October 2008 between Timothy F. Geithner, then-president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Andrew M. Cuomo, New York’s attorney general at the time, illustrates the complexities of pursuing legal cases in a time of panic.

At the Fed, which oversees the nation’s largest banks, Mr. Geithner worked with the Treasury Department on a large bailout fund for the banks and led efforts to shore up the American International Group, the giant insurer. His focus: stabilizing world financial markets.

Mr. Cuomo, as a Wall Street enforcer, had been questioning banks and rating agencies aggressively for more than a year about their roles in the growing debacle, and also looking into bonuses at A.I.G.

Friendly since their days in the Clinton administration, the two met in Mr. Cuomo’s office in Lower Manhattan, steps from Wall Street and the New York Fed. According to three people briefed at the time about the meeting, Mr. Geithner expressed concern about the fragility of the financial system.

His worry, according to these people, sprang from a desire to calm markets, a goal that could be complicated by a hard-charging attorney general.

Asked whether the unusual meeting had altered his approach, a spokesman for Mr. Cuomo, now New York’s governor, said Wednesday evening that “Mr. Geithner never suggested that there be any lack of diligence or any slowdown.” Mr. Geithner, now the Treasury secretary, said through a spokesman that he had been focused on A.I.G. “to protect taxpayers.”

Whether prosecutors and regulators have been aggressive enough in pursuing wrongdoing is likely to long be a subject of debate. All say they have done the best they could under difficult circumstances.

But several years after the financial crisis, which was caused in large part by reckless lending and excessive risk taking by major financial institutions, no senior executives have been charged or imprisoned, and a collective government effort has not emerged. This stands in stark contrast to the failure of many savings and loan institutions in the late 1980s. In the wake of that debacle, special government task forces referred 1,100 cases to prosecutors, resulting in more than 800 bank officials going to jail. Among the best-known: Charles H. Keating Jr., of Lincoln Savings and Loan in Arizona, and David Paul, of Centrust Bank in Florida.

Former prosecutors, lawyers, bankers and mortgage employees say that investigators and regulators ignored past lessons about how to crack financial fraud.

As the crisis was starting to deepen in the spring of 2008, the Federal Bureau of Investigation scaled back a plan to assign more field agents to investigate mortgage fraud. That summer, the Justice Department also rejected calls to create a task force devoted to mortgage-related investigations, leaving these complex cases understaffed and poorly funded, and only much later established a more general financial crimes task force.

Leading up to the financial crisis, many officials said in interviews, regulators failed in their crucial duty to compile the information that traditionally has helped build criminal cases. In effect, the same dynamic that helped enable the crisis — weak regulation — also made it harder to pursue fraud in its aftermath.

A more aggressive mind-set could have spurred far more prosecutions this time, officials involved in the S.&L. cleanup said.

“This is not some evil conspiracy of two guys sitting in a room saying we should let people create crony capitalism and steal with impunity,” said William K. Black, a professor of law at University of Missouri, Kansas City, and the federal government’s director of litigation during the savings and loan crisis. “But their policies have created an exceptional criminogenic environment. There were no criminal referrals from the regulators. No fraud working groups. No national task force. There has been no effective punishment of the elites here.”

Even civil actions by the government have been limited. The Securities and Exchange Commission adopted a broad guideline in 2009 — distributed within the agency but never made public — to be cautious about pushing for hefty penalties from banks that had received bailout money. The agency was concerned about taxpayer money in effect being used to pay for settlements, according to four people briefed on the policy but who were not authorized to speak publicly about it.

To be sure, Wall Street’s role in the crisis is complex, and cases related to mortgage securities are immensely technical. Criminal intent in particular is difficult to prove, and banks defend their actions with documents they say show they operated properly.

But legal experts point to numerous questionable activities where criminal probes might have borne fruit and possibly still could.

Investigators, they argue, could look more deeply at the failure of executives to fully disclose the scope of the risks on their books during the mortgage mania, or the amounts of questionable loans they bundled into securities sold to investors that soured.

Prosecutors also could pursue evidence that executives knowingly awarded bonuses to themselves and colleagues based on overly optimistic valuations of mortgage assets — in effect, creating illusory profits that were wiped out by subsequent losses on the same assets. And they might also investigate whether executives cashed in shares based on inside information, or misled regulators and their own boards about looming problems.

Merrill Lynch, for example, understated its risky mortgage holdings by hundreds of billions of dollars. And public comments made by Angelo R. Mozilo, the chief executive of Countrywide Financial, praising his mortgage company’s practices were at odds with derisive statements he made privately in e-mails as he sold shares; the stock subsequently fell sharply as the company’s losses became known.

Executives at Lehman Brothers assured investors in the summer of 2008 that the company’s financial position was sound, even though they appeared to have counted as assets certain holdings pledged by Lehman to other companies, according to a person briefed on that case. At Bear Stearns, the first major Wall Street player to collapse, a private litigant says evidence shows that the firm’s executives may have pocketed revenues that should have gone to investors to offset losses when complex mortgage securities soured.

But the Justice Department has decided not to pursue some of these matters — including possible criminal cases against Mr. Mozilo of Countrywide and Joseph J. Cassano, head of Financial Products at A.I.G., the business at the epicenter of that company’s collapse. Mr. Cassano’s lawyers said that documents they had given to prosecutors refuted accusations that he had misled investors or the company’s board. Mr. Mozilo’s lawyers have said he denies any wrongdoing.

Among the few exceptions so far in civil action against senior bankers is a lawsuit filed last month against top executives of Washington Mutual, the failed bank now owned by JPMorgan Chase. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation sued Kerry K. Killinger, the company’s former chief executive, and two other officials, accusing them of piling on risky loans to grow faster and increase their compensation. The S.E.C. also extracted a $550 million settlement from Goldman Sachs for a mortgage security the bank built, though the S.E.C. did not name executives in that case.

Representatives at the Justice Department and the S.E.C. say they are still pursuing financial crisis cases, but legal experts warn that they become more difficult as time passes.

“If you look at the last couple of years and say, ‘This is the big-ticket prosecution that came out of the crisis,’ you realize we haven’t gotten very much,” said David A. Skeel, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania. “It’s consistent with what many people were worried about during the crisis, that different rules would be applied to different players. It goes to the whole perception that Wall Street was taken care of, and Main Street was not.”

The Countrywide Puzzle

As nonprosecutions go, perhaps none is more puzzling to legal experts than the case of Countrywide, the nation’s largest mortgage lender. Last month, the office of the United States attorney for Los Angeles dropped its investigation of Mr. Mozilo after the S.E.C. extracted a settlement from him in a civil fraud case. Mr. Mozilo paid $22.5 million in penalties, without admitting or denying the accusations.

White-collar crime lawyers contend that Countrywide exemplifies the difficulties of mounting a criminal case without assistance and documentation from regulators — the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Fed, in Countrywide’s case.

“When regulators don’t believe in regulation and don’t get what is going on at the companies they oversee, there can be no major white-collar crime prosecutions,” said Henry N. Pontell, professor of criminology, law and society in the School of Social Ecology at the University of California, Irvine. “If they don’t understand what we call collective embezzlement, where people are literally looting their own firms, then it’s impossible to bring cases.”

Financial crisis cases can be brought by many parties. Since the big banks’ mortgage machinery involved loans on properties across the country, attorneys general in most states have broad criminal authority over most of these institutions. The Justice Department can bring civil or criminal cases, while the S.E.C. can file only civil lawsuits.

All of these enforcement agencies traditionally depend heavily on referrals from bank regulators, who are more savvy on complex financial matters.

But data supplied by the Justice Department and compiled by a group at Syracuse University show that over the last decade, regulators have referred substantially fewer cases to criminal investigators than previously.

The university’s Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse indicates that in 1995, bank regulators referred 1,837 cases to the Justice Department. In 2006, that number had fallen to 75. In the four subsequent years, a period encompassing the worst of the crisis, an average of only 72 a year have been referred for criminal prosecution.

Law enforcement officials say financial case referrals began declining under President Clinton as his administration shifted its focus to health care fraud. The trend continued in the Bush administration, except for a spike in prosecutions for Enron, WorldCom, Tyco and others for accounting fraud.

The Office of Thrift Supervision was in a particularly good position to help guide possible prosecutions. From the summer of 2007 to the end of 2008, O.T.S.-overseen banks with $355 billion in assets failed.

The thrift supervisor, however, has not referred a single case to the Justice Department since 2000, the Syracuse data show. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a unit of the Treasury Department, has referred only three in the last decade.

The comptroller’s office declined to comment on its referrals. But a spokesman, Kevin Mukri, noted that bank regulators can and do bring their own civil enforcement actions. But most are against small banks and do not involve the stiff penalties that accompany criminal charges.

Historically, Countrywide’s bank subsidiary was overseen by the comptroller, while the Federal Reserve supervised its home loans unit. But in March 2007, Countrywide switched oversight of both units to the thrift supervisor. That agency was overseen at the time by John M. Reich, a former banker and Senate staff member appointed in 2005 by President George W. Bush.

Robert Gnaizda, former general counsel at the Greenlining Institute, a nonprofit consumer organization in Oakland, Calif., said he had spoken often with Mr. Reich about Countrywide’s reckless lending.

“We saw that people were getting bad loans,” Mr. Gnaizda recalled. “We focused on Countrywide because they were the largest originator in California and they were the ones with the most exotic mortgages.”

Mr. Gnaizda suggested many times that the thrift supervisor tighten its oversight of the company, he said. He said he advised Mr. Reich to set up a hot line for whistle-blowers inside Countrywide to communicate with regulators.

“I told John, ‘This is what any police chief does if he wants to solve a crime,’ ” Mr. Gnaizda said in an interview. “John was uninterested. He told me he was a good friend of Mozilo’s.”

In an e-mail message, Mr. Reich said he did not recall the conversation with Mr. Gnaizda, and his relationships with the chief executives of banks overseen by his agency were strictly professional. “I met with Mr. Mozilo only a few times, always in a business environment, and any insinuation of a personal friendship is simply false,” he wrote.

After the crisis had subsided, another opportunity to investigate Countrywide and its executives yielded little. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, created by Congress to investigate the origins of the disaster, decided not to make an in-depth examination of the company — though some staff members felt strongly that it should.

In a January 2010 memo, Brad Bondi and Martin Biegelman, two assistant directors of the commission, outlined their recommendations for investigative targets and hearings, according to Tom Krebs, another assistant director of the commission. Countrywide and Mr. Mozilo were specifically named; the memo noted that subprime mortgage executives like Mr. Mozilo received hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation even though their companies collapsed.

However, the two soon received a startling message: Countrywide was off limits. In a staff meeting, deputies to Phil Angelides, the commission’s chairman, said he had told them Countrywide should not be a target or featured at any hearing, said Mr. Krebs, who said he was briefed on that meeting by Mr. Bondi and Mr. Biegelman shortly after it occurred. His account has been confirmed by two other people with direct knowledge of the situation.

Mr. Angelides denied that he had said Countrywide or Mr. Mozilo were off limits. Chris Seefer, the F.C.I.C. official responsible for the Countrywide investigation, also said Countrywide had not been given a pass. Mr. Angelides said a full investigation was done on the company, including 40 interviews, and that a hearing was planned for the fall of 2010 to feature Mr. Mozilo. It was canceled because Republican members of the commission did not want any more hearings, he said.

“It got as full a scrub as A.I.G., Citi, anyone,” Mr. Angelides said of Countrywide. “If you look at the report, it’s extraordinarily condemnatory.”

An F.B.I. Investigation Fizzles

The Justice Department in Washington was abuzz in the spring of 2008. Bear Stearns had collapsed, and some law enforcement insiders were suggesting an in-depth search for fraud throughout the mortgage pipeline.

The F.B.I. had expressed concerns about mortgage improprieties as early as 2004. But it was not until four years later that its officials recommended closing several investigative programs to free agents for financial fraud cases, according to two people briefed on a study by the bureau.

The study identified about two dozen regions where mortgage fraud was believed rampant, and the bureau’s criminal division created a plan to investigate major banks and lenders. Robert S. Mueller III, the director of the F.B.I., approved the plan, which was described in a memo sent in spring 2008 to the bureau’s field offices.

“We were focused on the whole gamut: the individuals, the mortgage brokers and the top of the industry,” said Kenneth W. Kaiser, the former assistant director of the criminal investigations unit. “We were looking at the corporate level.”

Days after the memo was sent, however, prosecutors at some Justice Department offices began to complain that shifting agents to mortgage cases would hurt other investigations, he recalled. “We got told by the D.O.J. not to shift those resources,” he said. About a week later, he said, he was told to send another memo undoing many of the changes. Some of the extra agents were not deployed.

A spokesman for the F.B.I., Michael Kortan, said that a second memo was sent out that allowed field offices to try to opt out of some of the changes in the first memo. Mr. Kaiser’s account of pushback from the Justice Department was confirmed by two other people who were at the F.B.I. in 2008.

Around the same time, the Justice Department also considered setting up a financial fraud task force specifically to scrutinize the mortgage industry. Such task forces had been crucial to winning cases against Enron executives and those who looted savings and loans in the early 1990s.

Michael B. Mukasey, a former federal judge in New York who had been the head of the Justice Department less than a year when Bear Stearns fell, discussed the matter with deputies, three people briefed on the talks said. He decided against a task force and announced his decision in June 2008.

Last year, officials of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission interviewed Mr. Mukasey. Asked if he was aware of requests for more resources to be dedicated to mortgage fraud, Mr. Mukasey said he did not recall internal requests.

A spokesman for Mr. Mukasey, who is now at the law firm Debevoise & Plimpton in New York, said he would not comment beyond his F.C.I.C. testimony. He had no knowledge of the F.B.I. memo, his spokesman added.

A year later — with precious time lost — several lawmakers decided that the government needed more people tracking financial crimes. Congress passed a bill, providing a $165 million budget increase to the F.B.I. and Justice Department for investigations in this area. But when lawmakers got around to allocating the budget, only about $30 million in new money was provided.

Subsequently, in late 2009, the Justice Department announced a task force to focus broadly on financial crimes. But it received no additional resources.

A Break for 8 Banks

In July 2008, the staff of the S.E.C. received a phone call from Scott G. Alvarez, general counsel at the Federal Reserve in Washington.

The purpose: to discuss an S.E.C. investigation into improprieties by several of the nation’s largest brokerage firms. Their actions had hammered thousands of investors holding the short-term investments known as auction-rate securities.

These investments carry interest rates that reset regularly, usually weekly, in auctions overseen by the brokerage firms that sell them. They were popular among investors because the interest rates they received were slightly higher than what they could earn elsewhere.

For years, companies like UBS and Goldman Sachs operated auctions of these securities, promoting them as highly liquid investments. But by mid-February 2008, as the subprime mortgage crisis began to spread, investors holding hundreds of billions of dollars of these securities could no longer cash them in.

As the S.E.C. investigated these events, several of its officials argued that the banks should make all investors whole on the securities, according to three people with knowledge of the negotiations but who were not authorized to speak publicly, because banks had marketed them as safe investments.

But Mr. Alvarez suggested that the S.E.C. soften the proposed terms of the auction-rate settlements. His staff followed up with more calls to the S.E.C., cautioning that banks might run short on capital if they had to pay the many billions of dollars needed to make all auction-rate clients whole, the people briefed on the conversations said. The S.E.C. wound up requiring eight banks to pay back only individual investors. For institutional investors — like pension funds — that bought the securities, the S.E.C. told the banks to make only their “best efforts.”

This shift eased the pain significantly at some of the nation’s biggest banks. For Citigroup, the new terms meant it had to redeem $7 billion in the securities for individual investors — but it was off the hook for about $12 billion owned by institutions. These institutions have subsequently recouped some but not all of their investments. Mr. Alvarez declined to comment, through a spokeswoman.

An S.E.C. spokesman said: “The primary consideration was remedying the alleged wrongdoing and in fashioning that remedy, the emphasis was placed on retail investors because they were suffering the greatest hardship and had the fewest avenues for redress.”

A similar caution emerged in other civil cases after the bank bailouts in the autumn of 2008. The S.E.C.’s investigations of financial institutions began to be questioned by its staff and the agency’s commissioners, who worried that the settlements might be paid using federal bailout money.

Four people briefed on the discussions, who spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said that in early 2009, the S.E.C. created a broad policy involving settlements with companies that had received taxpayer assistance. In discussions with the Treasury Department, the agency’s division of enforcement devised a guideline stating that the financial health of those banks should be taken into account when the agency negotiated settlements with them.

“This wasn’t a political thing so much as, ‘We don’t know if it makes sense to bring a big penalty against a bank that just got a check from the government,’ ” said one of the people briefed on the discussions.

The people briefed on the S.E.C.’s settlement policy said that, while it did not directly affect many settlements, it slowed down the investigative work on other cases. A spokesman for the S.E.C. declined to comment.

Attorney General Moves On

The final chapter still hasn’t been written about the financial crisis and its aftermath. One thing has been especially challenging for regulators and law enforcement officials: balancing concerns for the state of the financial system even as they pursued immensely complicated cases.

The conundrum was especially clear back in the fall of 2008 when Mr. Geithner visited Mr. Cuomo and discussed A.I.G. Asked for details about the meeting, a spokesman for Mr. Geithner said: “As A.I.G.’s largest creditor, the New York Federal Reserve installed new management at A.I.G. in the fall of 2008 and directed the new C.E.O. to take steps to end wasteful spending by the company in order to protect taxpayers.”

Mr. Cuomo’s office said, “The attorney general went on to lead the most aggressive investigation of A.I.G. and other financial institutions in the nation.” After that meeting, and until he left to become governor, Mr. Cuomo focused on the financial crisis, with mixed success. In late 2010, Mr. Cuomo sued the accounting firm Ernst & Young, accusing it of helping its client Lehman Brothers “engage in massive accounting fraud.”

To date, however, no arm of government has sued Lehman or any of its executives on the same accounting tactic.

Other targets have also avoided legal action. Mr. Cuomo investigated the 2008 bonuses that were paid out by giant banks just after the bailout, and he considered bringing a case to try to claw back some of that money, two people familiar with the matter said. But ultimately he chose to publicly shame the companies by releasing their bonus figures.

Mr. Cuomo took a tough stance on Bank of America. While the S.E.C. settled its case with Bank of America without charging any executives with wrongdoing, Mr. Cuomo filed a civil fraud lawsuit against Kenneth D. Lewis, the former chief executive, and the bank’s former chief financial officer. The suit accuses them of understating the losses of Merrill Lynch to shareholders before the deal was approved; the case is still pending.

Last spring, Mr. Cuomo issued new mortgage-related subpoenas to eight large banks. He was interested in whether the banks had misled the ratings agencies about the quality of the loans they were bundling and asked how many workers they had hired from the ratings agencies. But Mr. Cuomo did not bring a case on this matter before leaving office.


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NYT: In financial crisis, no major prosecutions

It is a question asked repeatedly across America: why, in the aftermath of a financial mess that generated hundreds of billions in losses, have no high-profile participants in the disaster been prosecuted?

Answering such a question — the equivalent of determining why a dog did not bark — is anything but simple. But a private meeting in mid-October 2008 between Timothy F. Geithner, then-president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Andrew M. Cuomo, New York's attorney general at the time, illustrates the complexities of pursuing legal cases in a time of panic.

At the Fed, which oversees the nation's largest banks, Geithner worked with the Treasury Department on a large bailout fund for the banks and led efforts to shore up the American International Group, the giant insurer. His focus: stabilizing world financial markets.

Cuomo, as a Wall Street enforcer, had been questioning banks and rating agencies aggressively for more than a year about their roles in the growing debacle, and also looking into bonuses at A.I.G.

Friendly since their days in the Clinton administration, the two met in Cuomo's office in Lower Manhattan, steps from Wall Street and the New York Fed. According to three people briefed at the time about the meeting, Geithner expressed concern about the fragility of the financial system.

His worry, according to these people, sprang from a desire to calm markets, a goal that could be complicated by a hard-charging attorney general.

Asked whether the unusual meeting had altered his approach, a spokesman for Cuomo, now New York's governor, said Wednesday evening that " Geithner never suggested that there be any lack of diligence or any slowdown." Geithner, now the Treasury secretary, said through a spokesman that he had been focused on A.I.G. "to protect taxpayers."

Whether prosecutors and regulators have been aggressive enough in pursuing wrongdoing is likely to long be a subject of debate. All say they have done the best they could under difficult circumstances.

But several years after the financial crisis, which was caused in large part by reckless lending and excessive risk taking by major financial institutions, no senior executives have been charged or imprisoned, and a collective government effort has not emerged. This stands in stark contrast to the failure of many savings and loan institutions in the late 1980s. In the wake of that debacle, special government task forces referred 1,100 cases to prosecutors, resulting in more than 800 bank officials going to jail. Among the best-known: Charles H. Keating Jr., of Lincoln Savings and Loan in Arizona, and David Paul, of Centrust Bank in Florida.

Former prosecutors, lawyers, bankers and mortgage employees say that investigators and regulators ignored past lessons about how to crack financial fraud.

As the crisis was starting to deepen in the spring of 2008, the Federal Bureau of Investigation scaled back a plan to assign more field agents to investigate mortgage fraud. That summer, the Justice Department also rejected calls to create a task force devoted to mortgage-related investigations, leaving these complex cases understaffed and poorly funded, and only much later established a more general financial crimes task force.

Leading up to the financial crisis, many officials said in interviews, regulators failed in their crucial duty to compile the information that traditionally has helped build criminal cases. In effect, the same dynamic that helped enable the crisis — weak regulation — also made it harder to pursue fraud in its aftermath.

A more aggressive mind-set could have spurred far more prosecutions this time, officials involved in the S&L cleanup said.

"This is not some evil conspiracy of two guys sitting in a room saying we should let people create crony capitalism and steal with impunity," said William K. Black, a professor of law at University of Missouri, Kansas City, and the federal government's director of litigation during the savings and loan crisis. "But their policies have created an exceptional criminogenic environment. There were no criminal referrals from the regulators. No fraud working groups. No national task force. There has been no effective punishment of the elites here."

Even civil actions by the government have been limited. The Securities and Exchange Commission adopted a broad guideline in 2009 — distributed within the agency but never made public — to be cautious about pushing for hefty penalties from banks that had received bailout money. The agency was concerned about taxpayer money in effect being used to pay for settlements, according to four people briefed on the policy but who were not authorized to speak publicly about it.

To be sure, Wall Street's role in the crisis is complex, and cases related to mortgage securities are immensely technical. Criminal intent in particular is difficult to prove, and banks defend their actions with documents they say show they operated properly.

But legal experts point to numerous questionable activities where criminal probes might have borne fruit and possibly still could.

Investigators, they argue, could look more deeply at the failure of executives to fully disclose the scope of the risks on their books during the mortgage mania, or the amounts of questionable loans they bundled into securities sold to investors that soured.

Prosecutors also could pursue evidence that executives knowingly awarded bonuses to themselves and colleagues based on overly optimistic valuations of mortgage assets — in effect, creating illusory profits that were wiped out by subsequent losses on the same assets. And they might also investigate whether executives cashed in shares based on inside information, or misled regulators and their own boards about looming problems.

Merrill Lynch, for example, understated its risky mortgage holdings by hundreds of billions of dollars. And public comments made by Angelo R. Mozilo, the chief executive of Countrywide Financial, praising his mortgage company's practices were at odds with derisive statements he made privately in e-mails as he sold shares; the stock subsequently fell sharply as the company's losses became known.

Executives at Lehman Brothers assured investors in the summer of 2008 that the company's financial position was sound, even though they appeared to have counted as assets certain holdings pledged by Lehman to other companies, according to a person briefed on that case. At Bear Stearns, the first major Wall Street player to collapse, a private litigant says evidence shows that the firm's executives may have pocketed revenues that should have gone to investors to offset losses when complex mortgage securities soured.

But the Justice Department has decided not to pursue some of these matters — including possible criminal cases against Mozilo of Countrywide and Joseph J. Cassano, head of Financial Products at A.I.G., the business at the epicenter of that company's collapse. Cassano's lawyers said that documents they had given to prosecutors refuted accusations that he had misled investors or the company's board. Mozilo's lawyers have said he denies any wrongdoing.

Among the few exceptions so far in civil action against senior bankers is a lawsuit filed last month against top executives of Washington Mutual, the failed bank now owned by JPMorgan Chase. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation sued Kerry K. Killinger, the company's former chief executive, and two other officials, accusing them of piling on risky loans to grow faster and increase their compensation. The S.E.C. also extracted a $550 million settlement from Goldman Sachs for a mortgage security the bank built, though the S.E.C. did not name executives in that case.

Representatives at the Justice Department and the S.E.C. say they are still pursuing financial crisis cases, but legal experts warn that they become more difficult as time passes.

"If you look at the last couple of years and say, 'This is the big-ticket prosecution that came out of the crisis,' you realize we haven't gotten very much," said David A. Skeel, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania. "It's consistent with what many people were worried about during the crisis, that different rules would be applied to different players. It goes to the whole perception that Wall Street was taken care of, and Main Street was not."

The Countrywide puzzle
As nonprosecutions go, perhaps none is more puzzling to legal experts than the case of Countrywide, the nation's largest mortgage lender. Last month, the office of the United States attorney for Los Angeles dropped its investigation of Mozilo after the S.E.C. extracted a settlement from him in a civil fraud case. Mozilo paid $22.5 million in penalties, without admitting or denying the accusations.

White-collar crime lawyers contend that Countrywide exemplifies the difficulties of mounting a criminal case without assistance and documentation from regulators — the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Fed, in Countrywide's case.

"When regulators don't believe in regulation and don't get what is going on at the companies they oversee, there can be no major white-collar crime prosecutions," said Henry N. Pontell, professor of criminology, law and society in the School of Social Ecology at the University of California, Irvine. "If they don't understand what we call collective embezzlement, where people are literally looting their own firms, then it's impossible to bring cases."

Financial crisis cases can be brought by many parties. Since the big banks' mortgage machinery involved loans on properties across the country, attorneys general in most states have broad criminal authority over most of these institutions. The Justice Department can bring civil or criminal cases, while the S.E.C. can file only civil lawsuits.

All of these enforcement agencies traditionally depend heavily on referrals from bank regulators, who are more savvy on complex financial matters.

But data supplied by the Justice Department and compiled by a group at Syracuse University show that over the last decade, regulators have referred substantially fewer cases to criminal investigators than previously.

The university's Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse indicates that in 1995, bank regulators referred 1,837 cases to the Justice Department. In 2006, that number had fallen to 75. In the four subsequent years, a period encompassing the worst of the crisis, an average of only 72 a year have been referred for criminal prosecution.

Law enforcement officials say financial case referrals began declining under President Clinton as his administration shifted its focus to health care fraud. The trend continued in the Bush administration, except for a spike in prosecutions for Enron, WorldCom, Tyco and others for accounting fraud.

The Office of Thrift Supervision was in a particularly good position to help guide possible prosecutions. From the summer of 2007 to the end of 2008, O.T.S.-overseen banks with $355 billion in assets failed.

The thrift supervisor, however, has not referred a single case to the Justice Department since 2000, the Syracuse data show. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a unit of the Treasury Department, has referred only three in the last decade.

The comptroller's office declined to comment on its referrals. But a spokesman, Kevin Mukri, noted that bank regulators can and do bring their own civil enforcement actions. But most are against small banks and do not involve the stiff penalties that accompany criminal charges.

Historically, Countrywide's bank subsidiary was overseen by the comptroller, while the Federal Reserve supervised its home loans unit. But in March 2007, Countrywide switched oversight of both units to the thrift supervisor. That agency was overseen at the time by John M. Reich, a former banker and Senate staff member appointed in 2005 by President George W. Bush.

Robert Gnaizda, former general counsel at the Greenlining Institute, a nonprofit consumer organization in Oakland, Calif., said he had spoken often with Reich about Countrywide's reckless lending.

"We saw that people were getting bad loans," Gnaizda recalled. "We focused on Countrywide because they were the largest originator in California and they were the ones with the most exotic mortgages."

Gnaizda suggested many times that the thrift supervisor tighten its oversight of the company, he said. He said he advised Reich to set up a hot line for whistle-blowers inside Countrywide to communicate with regulators.

"I told John, 'This is what any police chief does if he wants to solve a crime,' " Gnaizda said in an interview. "John was uninterested. He told me he was a good friend of Mozilo's."

In an e-mail message, Reich said he did not recall the conversation with Gnaizda, and his relationships with the chief executives of banks overseen by his agency were strictly professional. "I met with Mozilo only a few times, always in a business environment, and any insinuation of a personal friendship is simply false," he wrote.

After the crisis had subsided, another opportunity to investigate Countrywide and its executives yielded little. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, created by Congress to investigate the origins of the disaster, decided not to make an in-depth examination of the company — though some staff members felt strongly that it should.

In a January 2010 memo, Brad Bondi and Martin Biegelman, two assistant directors of the commission, outlined their recommendations for investigative targets and hearings, according to Tom Krebs, another assistant director of the commission. Countrywide and Mozilo were specifically named; the memo noted that subprime mortgage executives like Mozilo received hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation even though their companies collapsed.

However, the two soon received a startling message: Countrywide was off limits. In a staff meeting, deputies to Phil Angelides, the commission's chairman, said he had told them Countrywide should not be a target or featured at any hearing, said Krebs, who said he was briefed on that meeting by Bondi and Biegelman shortly after it occurred. His account has been confirmed by two other people with direct knowledge of the situation.

Angelides denied that he had said Countrywide or Mozilo were off limits. Chris Seefer, the F.C.I.C. official responsible for the Countrywide investigation, also said Countrywide had not been given a pass. Angelides said a full investigation was done on the company, including 40 interviews, and that a hearing was planned for the fall of 2010 to feature Mozilo. It was canceled because Republican members of the commission did not want any more hearings, he said.

"It got as full a scrub as A.I.G., Citi, anyone," Angelides said of Countrywide. "If you look at the report, it's extraordinarily condemnatory."

An F.B.I. investigation fizzles
The Justice Department in Washington was abuzz in the spring of 2008. Bear Stearns had collapsed, and some law enforcement insiders were suggesting an in-depth search for fraud throughout the mortgage pipeline.

The F.B.I. had expressed concerns about mortgage improprieties as early as 2004. But it was not until four years later that its officials recommended closing several investigative programs to free agents for financial fraud cases, according to two people briefed on a study by the bureau.

The study identified about two dozen regions where mortgage fraud was believed rampant, and the bureau's criminal division created a plan to investigate major banks and lenders. Robert S. Mueller III, the director of the F.B.I., approved the plan, which was described in a memo sent in spring 2008 to the bureau's field offices.

"We were focused on the whole gamut: the individuals, the mortgage brokers and the top of the industry," said Kenneth W. Kaiser, the former assistant director of the criminal investigations unit. "We were looking at the corporate level."

Days after the memo was sent, however, prosecutors at some Justice Department offices began to complain that shifting agents to mortgage cases would hurt other investigations, he recalled. "We got told by the D.O.J. not to shift those resources," he said. About a week later, he said, he was told to send another memo undoing many of the changes. Some of the extra agents were not deployed.

A spokesman for the F.B.I., Michael Kortan, said that a second memo was sent out that allowed field offices to try to opt out of some of the changes in the first memo. Kaiser's account of pushback from the Justice Department was confirmed by two other people who were at the F.B.I. in 2008.

Around the same time, the Justice Department also considered setting up a financial fraud task force specifically to scrutinize the mortgage industry. Such task forces had been crucial to winning cases against Enron executives and those who looted savings and loans in the early 1990s.

Michael B. Mukasey, a former federal judge in New York who had been the head of the Justice Department less than a year when Bear Stearns fell, discussed the matter with deputies, three people briefed on the talks said. He decided against a task force and announced his decision in June 2008.

Last year, officials of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission interviewed Mukasey. Asked if he was aware of requests for more resources to be dedicated to mortgage fraud, Mukasey said he did not recall internal requests.

A spokesman for Mukasey, who is now at the law firm Debevoise & Plimpton in New York, said he would not comment beyond his F.C.I.C. testimony. He had no knowledge of the F.B.I. memo, his spokesman added.

A year later — with precious time lost — several lawmakers decided that the government needed more people tracking financial crimes. Congress passed a bill, providing a $165 million budget increase to the F.B.I. and Justice Department for investigations in this area. But when lawmakers got around to allocating the budget, only about $30 million in new money was provided.

Subsequently, in late 2009, the Justice Department announced a task force to focus broadly on financial crimes. But it received no additional resources.

A break for 8 banks
In July 2008, the staff of the S.E.C. received a phone call from Scott G. Alvarez, general counsel at the Federal Reserve in Washington.

The purpose: to discuss an S.E.C. investigation into improprieties by several of the nation's largest brokerage firms. Their actions had hammered thousands of investors holding the short-term investments known as auction-rate securities.

These investments carry interest rates that reset regularly, usually weekly, in auctions overseen by the brokerage firms that sell them. They were popular among investors because the interest rates they received were slightly higher than what they could earn elsewhere.

For years, companies like UBS and Goldman Sachs operated auctions of these securities, promoting them as highly liquid investments. But by mid-February 2008, as the subprime mortgage crisis began to spread, investors holding hundreds of billions of dollars of these securities could no longer cash them in.

As the S.E.C. investigated these events, several of its officials argued that the banks should make all investors whole on the securities, according to three people with knowledge of the negotiations but who were not authorized to speak publicly, because banks had marketed them as safe investments.

But Alvarez suggested that the S.E.C. soften the proposed terms of the auction-rate settlements. His staff followed up with more calls to the S.E.C., cautioning that banks might run short on capital if they had to pay the many billions of dollars needed to make all auction-rate clients whole, the people briefed on the conversations said. The S.E.C. wound up requiring eight banks to pay back only individual investors. For institutional investors — like pension funds — that bought the securities, the S.E.C. told the banks to make only their "best efforts."

This shift eased the pain significantly at some of the nation's biggest banks. For Citigroup, the new terms meant it had to redeem $7 billion in the securities for individual investors — but it was off the hook for about $12 billion owned by institutions. These institutions have subsequently recouped some but not all of their investments. Alvarez declined to comment, through a spokeswoman.

An S.E.C. spokesman said: "The primary consideration was remedying the alleged wrongdoing and in fashioning that remedy, the emphasis was placed on retail investors because they were suffering the greatest hardship and had the fewest avenues for redress."

A similar caution emerged in other civil cases after the bank bailouts in the autumn of 2008. The S.E.C.'s investigations of financial institutions began to be questioned by its staff and the agency's commissioners, who worried that the settlements might be paid using federal bailout money.

Four people briefed on the discussions, who spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said that in early 2009, the S.E.C. created a broad policy involving settlements with companies that had received taxpayer assistance. In discussions with the Treasury Department, the agency's division of enforcement devised a guideline stating that the financial health of those banks should be taken into account when the agency negotiated settlements with them.

"This wasn't a political thing so much as, 'We don't know if it makes sense to bring a big penalty against a bank that just got a check from the government,'" said one of the people briefed on the discussions.

The people briefed on the S.E.C.'s settlement policy said that, while it did not directly affect many settlements, it slowed down the investigative work on other cases. A spokesman for the S.E.C. declined to comment.

Attorney general moves on
The final chapter still hasn't been written about the financial crisis and its aftermath. One thing has been especially challenging for regulators and law enforcement officials: balancing concerns for the state of the financial system even as they pursued immensely complicated cases.

The conundrum was especially clear back in the fall of 2008 when Geithner visited Cuomo and discussed A.I.G. Asked for details about the meeting, a spokesman for Geithner said: "As A.I.G.'s largest creditor, the New York Federal Reserve installed new management at A.I.G. in the fall of 2008 and directed the new C.E.O. to take steps to end wasteful spending by the company in order to protect taxpayers."

Cuomo's office said, "The attorney general went on to lead the most aggressive investigation of A.I.G. and other financial institutions in the nation." After that meeting, and until he left to become governor, Cuomo focused on the financial crisis, with mixed success. In late 2010, Cuomo sued the accounting firm Ernst & Young, accusing it of helping its client Lehman Brothers "engage in massive accounting fraud."

To date, however, no arm of government has sued Lehman or any of its executives on the same accounting tactic.

Other targets have also avoided legal action. Cuomo investigated the 2008 bonuses that were paid out by giant banks just after the bailout, and he considered bringing a case to try to claw back some of that money, two people familiar with the matter said. But ultimately he chose to publicly shame the companies by releasing their bonus figures.

Cuomo took a tough stance on Bank of America. While the S.E.C. settled its case with Bank of America without charging any executives with wrongdoing, Cuomo filed a civil fraud lawsuit against Kenneth D. Lewis, the former chief executive, and the bank's former chief financial officer. The suit accuses them of understating the losses of Merrill Lynch to shareholders before the deal was approved; the case is still pending.

Last spring, Cuomo issued new mortgage-related subpoenas to eight large banks. He was interested in whether the banks had misled the ratings agencies about the quality of the loans they were bundling and asked how many workers they had hired from the ratings agencies. But Cuomo did not bring a case on this matter before leaving office.

This article, "In Financial Crisis, No Prosecutions of Top Figures," originally appeared in The New York Times.

Copyright © 2010 The New York Times


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Saturday, April 9, 2011

Portugal Plans to Ask Europe for a Financial Bailout

José Sócrates, Portugal’s prime minister, said in a televised address Wednesday night that he had requested aid from the European Commission after recognizing that borrowing costs had become unsustainable.

“I had always considered outside aid as a last recourse scenario,” he said. “I say today to the Portuguese that it is in our national interest to take this step.”

He did not, however, specify the timing of any bailout.

Portugal will probably need about 75 billion euros ($106.5 billion) in assistance, according to a recent estimate by Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, who presides over meetings of euro zone ministers. Some analysts have suggested that the amount could be as much as 100 billion euros.

A Portuguese bailout has long been expected, but the speed with which things moved Wednesday appeared to have taken European officials in Brussels by surprise, leaving the timetable unclear. European leaders have been working to keep the financial contagion from spreading. Lisbon’s move now puts pressure on Spain, which has undertaken major economic reforms, budget cuts and a banking clean-up to stay out of danger.

In a statement the president of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, said Portugal’s request “will be processed in the swiftest possible manner, according to the rules applicable.”

If the pattern of previous bailouts is repeated, a team of officials will be sent to Lisbon to discuss the conditions of a bailout, which will then need to be agreed upon by European finance ministers. That, however, will probably not happen for several weeks.

Caught in a political crisis and facing tough refinancing hurdles, Portugal has also been hit by repeated downgrades by credit-rating agencies, sending yields this week on Portuguese government debt to their highest levels since the introduction of the euro.

Mr. Sócrates, who had been governing without a parliamentary majority, resigned last month after lawmakers rejected his latest austerity package. To break the political deadlock, Portugal is set to hold a general election on June 5.

In a separate televised address, Pedro Passos Coelho, the leader of the main Social Democratic opposition party, said that he backed the decision to seek outside help.

Adding to the pressure on the government, Portuguese banking executives warned this week that they did not want to take on more sovereign debt, urging the government to negotiate a bridge loan with its European partners.

Alongside that of Portuguese banks and companies, “the rating of the country has fallen like never before,” Mr. Sócrates said. “This is a particularly serious situation for our country.”

European ministers agreed last May to provide 80 billion euros in loans to Greece over three years as part of a package in which the International Monetary Fund provided an additional 30 billion euros. In November, they also agreed to a rescue package worth up to 85 billion euros for the Irish government.

Last month, leaders of the euro zone countries agreed to cut the interest rate charged Greece to help ease its debt burden. No such agreement was made with Ireland because of Dublin’s refusal to accede to French and German requests to raise its low corporate tax rate of 12.5 percent.

For Portugal, the emergency financing will ensure that it can meet its 20 billion euros of borrowing requirements for the year. But it is likely to set off debate over what conditions will be tied to any rescue package, at a time when Portugal struggles with record unemployment and an economy that is likely to contract 1.3 percent this year, according to a recent forecast from the Bank of Portugal.

Further, the government’s recent effort to push through an austerity package combining more spending cuts and tax increases prompted Portuguese residents to take to the streets last month in a sign of rising social unrest.

“Outside intervention will be positive for our treasury but could be a disaster for our economy,” said Diogo Ortigão Ramos, a specialist on fiscal legislation at a law firm, Cuatrecasas, Gonçalves Pereira. “Whoever forms the next government, our creditors will have the final word.”

Mr. Sócrates said that the decision to seek help was taken amid expectations that market conditions would continue to worsen for Portugal.

Analysts suggested that markets would respond cautiously on Thursday given the uncertainty surrounding the terms of any bailout.

“I expect that the news will bring only limited relief” to the yield spread between Portuguese bonds and those of Germany, the reference securities in the euro zone, said Tullia Bucco, economist at UniCredit, adding that “it will not refrain the European Central Bank from delivering a 25 basis point interest rate hike” this week.

Earlier on Wednesday, Portugal sold Treasury bills at a much higher cost than last month. It sold 455 million euros (about $646 million) in one-year Treasury bills at an average yield of 5.9 percent, compared with 4.33 percent yield when Portugal last sold such bills on March 16.

The national debt agency also sold 550 million euros of six-month bills at an average yield of 5.12 percent, compared with a yield of 2.98 percent at a previous auction on March 2. The Treasury bill sale came after Moody’s on Tuesday cut the sovereign rating of Portugal for the second time in a month. On Wednesday, Moody’s also downgraded by one or more notches the senior debt and deposit ratings of seven Portuguese banks.

Stephen Castle contributed reporting from Brussels.


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Friday, February 25, 2011

Financial crisis erupts

ATHENS, Greece —  Youths wearing ski masks hurled chunks of marble and fire bombs at riot police as clashes broke out today in Athens during a mass rally against austerity measures, part of a general strike that crippled services and public transport around financially struggling Greece.

Police fired tear gas and flash grenades at protesters, blanketing parts of the city center in choking smoke and forcing thousands of peaceful demonstrators to scurry into side streets for cover. A motorcycle police officer was hit by a petrol bomb and his uniform caught fire in the city's main Syntagma Square, before he was rescued by colleagues. His bike was destroyed.

Protesters chanting "Don't obey the rich — Fight back!" marched to parliament as the city center was heavily policed. A brass band, tractors and cyclists joined the rally.

Rioting youths smashed paving slabs, marble building fronts and white marble balustrades outside central metro stations to use for hurling at police.

Some 15 policemen were injured, and nine suspected rioters were arrested, including a man who was allegedly armed with a longbow, arrows and an axe, police said.

The rally was part of Greece's first major labor protest this year as Prime Minister George Papandreou's Socialist government faces international pressure to make more lasting cuts after the nation's debt-crippled economy was rescued from bankruptcy by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

Police said some 33,000 protesters had attended the Athens rally. Organizers said the turnout was around 100,000.

Stathis Anestis, deputy leader of Greece's largest union, the GSEE, said a "small group of troublemakers" marred the otherwise peaceful protest.

"Unfortunately, some people don't want to understand that such behavior, intentionally or not, undermines workers' struggles and only serves the plans of governments, employers, and all those who want to take tough repressive measures against workers," Anestis said.

The sporadic clashes lasted for more than three hours. Several hundred protesters gathered outside parliament after the march and vowed to remain there until the government agreed to make concessions. They were eventually forcibly removed by riot police. Protest organizers at that gathering said they had been inspired by ongoing revolts in North Africa.

Prime Minister George Papandreou, on a visit to Finland, said he sympathized with the peaceful protesters.

"Economic situation (in Greece) is very difficult, and sometimes even I myself feel an urge to join the ranks of protesters," Papandreou was quoted as saying to Finnish national broadcaster YLE. "But mere protesting leads nowhere. We need decisions that can genuinely help fixing the problems."

The 24-hour strike halted trains, ferries and most public transport across the country, and led to the cancellation of more than 100 flights at Athens International Airport. The strike also closed the Acropolis and other major tourist sites.

State hospital doctors, ambulance drivers, pharmacists, lawyers and tax collectors joined school teachers, journalists and thousands of small businesses as more middle-class groups took part in the protest than have in the past. Athens' main shopping district was mostly empty, as most owners of small shops and cafes shuttered their stores.

Unions are angry at the ongoing austerity measures put in place by the Socialist government in exchange for a euro110 billion ($150 billion) bailout loan package from European countries and the IMF.

Greeks have endured months of pay and pension cuts, sales-tax hikes and other drastic spending reductions, but protests have been revived by longer-term reforms including involuntary transfers for civil servants and new market rules to end protective job practices for truckers, lawyers, pharmacists and others.

The GSEE's Anestis said workers should not be asked to make more sacrifices during a third straight year of recession and job losses.

"The measures forced on us by the agreement with our lenders are harsh and unfair. ... We are facing long-term austerity with high unemployment and destabilizing our social structure," Anestis told The Associated Press. "What is increasing is the level of anger and desperation ... If these harsh policies continue, so will we."

Elsewhere, about 15,000 people rallied and minor scuffles broke out in Greece's second largest city, Thessaloniki, while Anestis said around 60 demonstrations were held in cities and towns across Greece. He said the GSEE was in talks with European labor unions to try and coordinate future strikes with other EU countries.

Earlier this month, international debt monitors said Greece needed a "significant acceleration" of long-term reforms to avoid missing its economic targets. They also urged the Socialist government to embark on a euro50 billion ($68 billion) privatization program to pay for some of its mounting national debt that is set to exceed 150 percent of the GDP this year.

The IMF has said some of the frequent demonstrations against the Greek government's reforms were being carried out by groups angry at losing their "unfair advantages and privileges."


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Monday, December 13, 2010

Financial Crisis Hits The Bahamas,

Financial Crisis Hits The Bahamas, by Phillip Morton, Investors Offshore.com
Thursday, December 09, 2010


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published its Article IV consultation with the Bahamas, noting that the territory's public finances have suffered significant exposure to the financial crisis, particularly as a result of a fall in tourism receipts.


The global crisis had a profound impact on the Bahamian economy. During 2009, tourist arrivals declined by 10% and foreign direct investment fell by over 30%, leading to a sharp contraction in domestic activity and an increase in unemployment,? the IMF report states.


The downturn deteriorated the fiscal position. Revenues declined, while the authorities maintained spending broadly in line with the budget (strengthening the social safety net and accelerating investment spending) to mitigate the demand shock. As a result, the central government deficit rose by 0.5% to 5.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the fiscal year 2009/10.? This deficit was financed by way of an IMF loan, under a one-off Special Drawing Rights allocation of USD179m, which more than covered the current account deficit. The IMF added that: ?Prudent macroeconomic policies have now laid the foundations of a recovery, but the outlook remains exposed to downside risks.


Presenting its recommendations, the IMF urged that lawmakers bolster efforts to rein in the deficit, continuing the fiscal plan adopted in the latest budget; to continue supporting economic growth, which will support the recovery of government revenues; and to begin a review of public sector expenditure. The IMF in particular welcomed the territory?s budget ? passed in June, which included several tax increases, but warned that contingency measures might be needed to achieve the desired reduction in the fiscal deficit. The IMF Executive Board said that ?broader reforms to the tax system and public finance management would be needed over the medium-term to sustain improvements in the fiscal position.


In terms of the Bahamas financial services industry, the Board noted that a sharp contraction in domestic activity amidst the global downturn had also weakened banks balance sheets, although it did note that the banking sector remains "well capitalized... with ample liquidity."


The Board commended the authorities efforts to strengthen the financial system and their close cooperation with supervisors in other jurisdictions. It welcomed recent enhancements in the oversight of the financial sector and in the legal framework for security markets. Finally, the IMF warned that rising non-performing loans at banks remain a concern, and that close monitoring is warranted.


Concluding, the IMF Executive Board agreed that far-reaching structural reforms are necessary to lift medium-term growth prospects. However, the Board welcomed the authorities? plans to improve business conditions, including for small and medium-sized enterprises, and to strengthen public infrastructure in a manner consistent with the fiscal consolidation strategy.


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Thursday, December 2, 2010

How serious is the financial crisis in Ireland and how dangerous is it for Poland?

29th November 2010 Bookmark and Share
Irish Prime Minister Brian Cohen finds himself in a tough spot
Courtesy of Bernier/Wikimedia Commons

Ireland has become the second European country to ask for a bailout this year. Links between the Irish and Polish economies are minor and the effects of Ireland’s economic turmoil on Poland have been limited so far. Nevertheless, Ireland’s difficulties have increased uncertainty, and raised the specter of a wider European economic breakdown.

Celtic tiger under fire

Once among Europe’s fastest-growing economies, Ireland agreed last week to negotiate an estimated €80-90 billion bailout with the EU and the IMF.

“The European authorities have agreed to our request. A formal process of negotiation will now commence with the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund in liaison with the European Central Bank. I expect that agreement to be finalized shortly,” said Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen.

Experts have been quick to differentiate Ireland’s problems from the Greek crisis. While Greece lived above its means, covered up its real level of debt and now faces social unrest against crucial budget cuts, Ireland is struggling with a crisis mainly limited to its banking sector. The Irish government has also already made €15 billion in cuts over the last two years and has announced a further €15 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes until 2014.

So far global markets have shown little sign of panic and experts are unconcerned that Ireland’s situation could derail Poland’s recovery.

But there is general apprehension that the crisis could spread, first to Portugal and more worryingly, to Spain.

With a total of €750 billion pledged for the stability of the euro zone, bailouts both to Ireland and Portugal could be managed relatively easily. But analysts say European resources would likely be insufficient if the contagion was to spread to Spain.

This is widely perceived as the worst case scenario and explains why the EU – which has agreed to work out the Irish bailout plan by the end of November – and Germany in particular, are pushing for a swift resolution of the Irish crisis. But instability in Ireland’s domestic politics threatens to complicate the matter.

To access the bailout money and calm the markets, Ireland first needs to pass its 2011 budget on December 7, and then quickly thereafter agree to the bailout. But whether Ireland can meet those deadlines is uncertain, as PM Cowen’s deeply unpopular coalition government faces a leadership struggle.

“That is what is really worrying investors,” said Marko Papic, an analyst at American intelligence firm STRATFOR. “Finances are irrelevant as long as Irish political instability persists. Until it is clear who is going to be penning those agreements, we won’t know what is happening.”

What does it mean for Poland?

Fortunately for Poland, experts are not worried about Polish growth for 2011.
“I still see growth in Poland returning to above four percent next year,” said Lars Christensen, chief analyst and head of emerging markets at Danske Bank.

Compared to the Greek crisis, where nearby Southeastern European countries were affected, the risks are small for Poland in the current situation.

But the z?oty, like other emerging market currencies, is moving on global risk sentiment and has already been affected. Polish National Bank president Marek Belka said last week that the Polish currency could be negatively affected due to the Irish crisis.

“All emerging markets are suffering, but the z?oty and currencies in the region are more affected than emerging markets in South America or Asia,” said Przemys?aw Kwiecie?, chief economist at X-Trade Brokers.

Poland could also find it harder to borrow if the Irish crisis leads to difficulties on sovereign bond markets.

Banks, banks, banks

Ireland’s current woes are widely attributed to its government’s attempts to recapitalize the banking sector, bringing a massive fiscal burden upon itself. And as a result of the bailout package, Ireland’s banks are due to face severe restructuring requirements.

But while uncertainty about the quality of banks in Europe is admittedly high – Irish banks did pass an EU-wide stress test meant to reassure investors this summer – the Polish banking sector is perceived as healthy.

“There are concerns over loan losses, especially in terms of consumer lending, but the outlook of the Polish banking system looks quite good,” commented Mr Christensen. “We can’t talk about a similar situation in Poland [to that of Ireland],” he added.

Exactly how much Irish banks owe is still unclear, but their main creditors are German and UK institutions.

Allied Irish Banks, the country’s second-largest bank, sold its controlling stake in Polish Bank Zachodni WBK in September, and any direct exposure Poland would have to potential Irish bankruptcies is minimal. While there has been some direct participation from Irish banks in Poland’s real estate market, the value of their loan portfolios in the country is small.

With Irish unemployment hovering at around 13 percent for months and expected to rise sharply, analysts say it is possible that some of the hundreds of thousands Poles who left for Ireland over the last few years could choose to return.

Poland’s unemployment rate is expected to reach 12 percent by the end of the year and this could potentially pressure the Polish job market, but experts contacted by WBJ did not foresee a massive spike.

Euro crisis

As for euro adoption, the Irish crisis should not change the wait-and-see approach Poland adopted following the Greek debacle.

“Obviously the euro is in a very serious crisis, but I think it’s impossible to see whether this is just a blip or if this will have serious macroeconomic implications for the euro zone,” said Danske Bank’s Christensen, who added that Poland’s cautious attitude was reasonable.

Moreover, the effects of trouble in the euro zone have been unpredictable. While some countries were severely affected by the Greek crisis, it has had little effect on Germany, Poland’s largest trading partner.

Danger of contagion

According to experts, the real fear both for Poland and Europe is the crisis spreading.
Of course, the first danger for Poland would be if its trading partners in the euro zone were hit badly, leading investors to question Polish growth prospects in the short to medium term.

“If the Irish crisis is contained, then there won’t be any problems for Poland. But if uncertainty persists, it could spread to Central European emerging markets,” said Mr Papic.

According to 34 out of 50 economists polled by Reuters last week, Portugal is likely to seek bailout funds from the European Union. Only four believed that Spain would eventually have to be bailed out.

Although specialists contacted by WBJ believed it was too early to judge, the mood was not overly optimistic.

“I think the problem won’t be resolved any time soon,” said X-Trade Brokers’ Przemys?aw Kwiecie?.

He bemoaned the fact that rating agencies have greatly increased turmoil on the markets by first maintaining overly high ratings for too long and then “slashing them vigorously in the midst of the crisis.”

Geopolitics

Although Portugal may end up needing a bailout, Mr Papic said Germany should be able to ensure that the situation in Ireland doesn’t spread further.

Ireland however, is not subject to the same pressures as continental peripheral countries. Its main trade partners are the US and the UK, which makes the country more resistant to pressure form Berlin, Brussels or Paris.

But perhaps more importantly, the Irish government is fully funded until mid-2011, giving it room to maneuver. That may not necessarily be a good thing, though.

“In this case latitude is negative, because it means that Irish politicians have room to delay the bailout in order to get better terms from Germany, and this ability is causing uncertainty in Europe,” said Mr Papic.

Much in agreement with this analysis, European monetary affairs commissioner Olli Rehn declared, “We don’t have a position on the domestic democratic politics of Ireland, but it is essential that the budget is adopted in time.”

Despite important pressures at home last week, Irish PM Brian Cowen refused to step down before the passage of the 2011 budget, but as WBJ went to press the situation remained uncertain.

“This is one of the situations where something that happens on the minute level matters immensely,” said Mr Papic.


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